Pensieve deposit 1: Notes of “The Clash of civilizations” book

Some notes from a book I’ve recently read, just so that I won’t forget about it completely later on. Below are some quick and subjective notes taken from my memory. Please click here if you want a more exact summary of the book. But your comments or corrections are very much welcome!

First appeared in summer 1993 on a Foreign Affair article, the argument of a new world order through the paradigm of civilizations suggested by Samuel Huntington has sparked a lot of discussions from scholars around the world. It provided a contrasted view to that of Francis Fukuyama in The End of History This Harvard professor later further argued his perspectives in a 300-page book of “The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order”.

Some arguments in this book.

- The Cold war bi-polar world has ceased from existence since the collapse of the Soviet Union. There’s a need for a new paradigm to explain, predict and hopefully effectively solve the conflicts in the new world.

- The new world order model based on civilizations is a more exact and applicable than any other alternatives. In that, the countries and people will tend to relate themselves to their kins of the same culture and belief, i.e. civilizations.

- Primary civilizations: Western -Christianity (dominant and falling), Islamic, Sinic – Confucian (the author use the word Sinic but I’d prefer to call it Confucian, hehe), Japanese, Russian- Orthodox.  Sub-civilization: Latin American, African.

- At a global conflict: it’s the West vs. the Rest.  At a lower level: it’s one civilization vs. the others.

- Two rising civilizations. The Islamic Resurgence and the East Asian Assertiveness.

- Islamic Resurgence is fueled by the demographic reason. With high birth rate, Muslim is the fastest expanding population world-wide. The boom in population, coupled with the inability of governments to create enough jobs, creates resentment toward Western civilization and nurture fundamental extreme ideas. Together with the aging populations in the West, the ever-easier Immigration and the "deteriorating" influence of Christian religious bodies to the western society, this Islamic Resurgence will create a lot of friction and tension between the Western and Islamic countries, and within the Western societies themselves. One big problem of this resurgence in the civilizational world perspective is that it lacks of a core state, a state which has a dominant and recognized influence toward other countries within the civilization. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan are all competing for this leading position. And even Indonesia and Turkey can be potential candidates too. Pakistan until now remains the only country which possesses nuclear weapon power. That may explain why Iran wants to join the N-Club too.

- East Asian Assertiveness. The rising of China economy has both embolden its cultural influence toward the East Asian Confucian countries (or Sinic countries), resuming the position of the Middle Kingdom status over neighbor countries as well as supporting its assertiveness of its own culture, values and interests against the West. Because of its size and its might, China will command a clear recognition of its influence from neighboring countries, and will interpret any international intervention in the region as a breach in its own sphere. Japan, which leads another civilization itself, has a choice of competing or subscribing to China power. History suggests the second option.





The dynamics of the new clashes and conflicts

- The conflicts will arise along the civilization fault lines. Societies where its populations composed of significant different cultural background peoples are amongst those who will experience severe internal pressure. Tension will also rise between neighboring countries that come from different civilizations. (The Yugoslavia war in 90s, India with Hindi and Muslim population, India vs. Pakistan, Muslim countries in central Asia vs. Orthodox Greater Russia and Christian West, and between Orthodox Greater Russia and Christian Western Europe, etc.)

- People no longer fight for ideologies or the system they believe. Instead, they are fighting for who they are. The cause of the new conflicts lies in the very core of people identity- the religion, faith, and values. Thus, these new wars will be much bloodier, may have some halts during the conflict but extremely difficult to stop and resolve, unless one group is eradicated, totally defeated, or the new border come with ethnic and religious cleansing materialized.

- The parties involved in the conflict will play up the civilization card as the cause of their war, and will appeal to their kin countries for the maximized support possible. Thus the conflicts can easily escalate out of the original cause and region.

- Countries will rally to support their kins only. Old allies from different civilizations in the Cold war will rumble and find themselves in the new awkward situation. Turkey vs. Greece, Pakistan vs. the West, and Japan vs. the West. As demonstrated in the Yugoslavia war, Russia supported Orthodox Serb, Western countries supported Christian Croatian, and Muslim countries supported Bosnian.